Will Blu-ray/hd-dvd Ever Take Off??

[Matt27]

Will it become the next SACD/DVD-A or become a Niche market???

I personally don't think the world is ready yet for HD-DVD/ BLU-RAY.

DVD is such a great format, how long do you think it will take if these two formats take off to go mainstream??

Do you really think the general public will want to shell out more $$$ just for minor increases in sharpness compared to DVD?

VHS-DVD was a huge improvement in not just video, but most importantly Sound and conveinience.

But we have come to a point where DVD is so good as it is that the difference between HD is not that big of a jump in PQ as it was with VHS-DVD.

Discuss...

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[max]

Do you really think the general public will want to shell out more $$$ just for minor increases in sharpness compared to DVD?


I hardly think you can call it minor, sure it's not as much as VHS to DVD but it is still a major improvement. watch rid**** or training day you'll see what I mean. heck even swordfish, rundown, U-571 and many more....

MAX,

[Matt27]

I'd have to agree with you on Rid****, the HD version does show a difference and not just minor.I seen it on HBO-HD looks very good.

But anywho this thread really is'nt about my opinion but of the general public on if these formats will become as mainstream as DVD is right now.

What are your thoughts?

[Ratman]

One, the other or both will become mainstream. As the technology matures, prices will drop and "legacy" DVD players will fall out of grace as did cassette players, Walkman, turntables, Laserdisc and VHS.

I would think that the evolution would be similar to VHS. The first players were 2 heads with mono audio and wired remotes. When "stereo" was introduced and IR remotes, prices dropped on the legacy player and a premium was paid for the new players.

Then came 4 heads, Hi-Fi, S-VHS, etc. as each new innovation was introduced, legacy prices fell and eventually disappered. Basically all VHS machines (dying a slow death) now have those features that we intially paid a very high premium.

Same holds true for Audio recievers. Hi-fi (mono), stereo, DPL, AC-3, DD, DTS, and on and on. Today it's harder to find a receiver that doesn't have DPL/DD/DTS and less than 5 channels (soon less than 7). And prices have dropped.

DVD players. It's hard to find one today that isn't P-scan. Upscaling players... initially a high premium to own one. Now you can get them well under $200.

HDTV. We are now witnessing the slow death of 'standard' NTSC TV. Aisles have more HDTV's and less and less legacy TV's.

IMO... high definition DVD's will follow the same evolutionary path and become "mainstream". And then the "next technology" will start this all over again!

[gparris]

Ratman is right about product migration and the history.

If the buying public knows enough about a product that it buys the product seeing the clear advantages to it (DVD vs. VHS) at a price they are comfortable with, it sells.

If you have any confusion regarding it (DVD-A and SACD), then market it as a high end item or shove its software in odd places in the store (again DVD-A and SACD), you get product launch failure.

HD DVD or BD could take off or replace one or the other over time, but the race has just started.

If in a year's time, the format "war" is still on, the BD discs are not all 50GB (in the MPEG2 format, assuming better picture and more features), we could, IMO, have a product launch failure with consumers wanting better with less confusion.
As for something better than these formats, the holographic disc is already a reality, I am just sort of sad it didn't replace it, already and be done with it, but I am certain it will eventually.
New changes we can anticipate and know with some certainty:
1) AVRs will need upgrading again over the DD, DTS to decode the DD+, DTS-HD and Dolby TRUEHD, too...that is forthcoming, probably next year for these new discs and possibly, broadcast/cable/sat sources, too.
In the meantime, everybody can hook up their 7.1 analogue inputs on more recent AVRs for this sound if any external decoding source is available.
2) HDMI v1.3 will be another addition HT equipment, so this is another anticipated change, though I doubt everyone will care, it will just be another enhancement like progressive scan to DVD players with price drops at time goes on. :D

[Ratman]

Let's be sure to try to keep this on topic. Try not to involve 'store marketing' practices, deficiencies and/or the "war".

It would be be better to assume (for the sake of this thread) that a high definition DVD player is now available and works well, no matter the format.

Back to the discussion. ;)_

[Matt27]

Interesting points.!

Although for a select few of the general market for those who don't care too much for quality, what will make these people adopt in the HD medium besides having extra resolution because i think to there eyes your going to have to do more than that to sway there way.

I think HD-DVD as it is and the prices so far are a good indicator of the things to come later on. Because it's not that expensive right now to jump in and the prices soon enough will get lower and lower and before you know it the format war will be over and then that is the time IMO that a lot of people may start to jump into the HD medium.

Or it may go the other way like gparris suggested in that it will become a niche market and be pushed into a corner of the store.Which i don't want to see personally.

Right now as it is, i think it's unclear yet whether these new formats will takeoff or not,It's going to take a couple years untill we get that answer.

I'd love to start a collection of my own but i'd rather wait untill all the dust is settled and theres one format and more variety of players and decent prices.

[bored28]

I think at some point the HD market will become saturated, where human perception can no longer discern one HD content from another. For example, 720p and 1080p, is there a HUGE difference between the two? I'm not sure, but when I viewed two sets side by side, I can barely see a difference... but is that difference worth the additional $1000? I dont know. Personal preference I suppose. I think HD-DVD and BD are just another example of this. Can you look at both side by side and say "oh yes, xxxx is better than xxxx? I don't know, we'll see I suppose.

I just think that our perception, especially our visual and auditory perceptions, are limited to a finite spectrum that is already seeing its limits and as such, most people will not see a huge difference between HD and BD.

However, I must say that there is a significan t difference b/w HD/BD and DVD, obviously. This would lead me to believe that HD and BD will start to take off at some point but I really think HD will win out in the end simply because its cheaper and the resolutions are so minimally different that most people will not see the difference.

Just one man's opinion.... :)

[rudyusmc1980]

They would already have my money if they, either one of them, had delivered what was promised. Too much missing from these players on both sides for me to get one. I only want one player for the near-term. I don't want to feel like I missed out when the 'good' model comes out.

I don't care about 1080p. I don't have a 1080p native display.

What I do care about is the proper video scaling and the audio. No side did the audio correctly. No side did the scaling correctly. They did these things on the cheap and prematurely. I won't buy a new receiver to go along with their master plan. This one is just fine, thank you.

[rudyusmc1980]

I frequently chuckle to myself at the assertions that high def discs are not "that" much better than dvd. Come over to my house and watch Master and Commander on D-VHS, encoded with higher bit DTS and the receiver turning 5.1 into 7.1. You will poo your pants.

When Toshiba meets my demands, I will buy. I have prerecorded HD movies and it is beautiful.

[gparris]

Interesting points.!
Or it may go the other way like gparris suggested in that it will become a niche market and be pushed into a corner of the store.Which i don't want to see personally.

Right now as it is, i think it's unclear yet whether these new formats will takeoff or not,It's going to take a couple years untill we get that answer.

I'd love to start a collection of my own but i'd rather wait untill all the dust is settled and theres one format and more variety of players and decent prices.

Matt27, what I meant was I hope these high def disc players get the marketing push they deserve and not fall into the wayside like those CD-would-have-been replacements did.
Today I really had to look for any SACDs and DVD-A's in the stores, for the few I could find. :sightv:

HD DVDs - and - BDs were easy to find in the big box stores...keep it coming!

HD DVD is a fine example of excellent picture with a relatively-affordable player and great sound.
For those who only use their HDTV sets for OTA HD and DVDs, the high def DVDs should be of great value, too.
If anything, these players can go down a bit more in price and I will snatch one up, but I was really hoping for 7.1 outputs to my AVRs since my HT setups are for 7.1 and the current batch of high def discs only offer 5.1, too.

As far as buying the actual HD DVDs, most of the current batch of HD DVD discs for sale I already have in standard def DVD, already, so I will want to rent them vs. buy, unless these are dual discs with standard def one side and the other high def for other DVD players/changers in the house. :D

[gparris]

I frequently chuckle to myself at the assertions that high def discs are not "that" much better than dvd. Come over to my house and watch Master and Commander on D-VHS, encoded with higher bit DTS and the receiver turning 5.1 into 7.1. You will poo your pants.

When Toshiba meets my demands, I will buy. I have prerecorded HD movies and it is beautiful.

I don't know about pooing in my pants, but I believe you. :D

Are the HD VHS titles still releasing, even with HD DVDs and BD coming out, now?
It is also becoming harder to find a HD VHS player, too, sorry to say...not to rain your DVHS "parade". :wave:

[rudyusmc1980]

not a parade by anymeans, I got that player on a whim last year when I got a bonus from a part time sales job. I have 15 movies plus DVE. I knew going in that movie support was gone. my model has atsc tuner, firewire, and hdmi. if nothing else, it is an extra tuner and archiver when I upgrade.

decks are still available online, no bigtime movie support, hdnet still supports though. I think hdnet skips the d-theater encrypt so mitsu decks will play them.

new discs were supposed to be better than dvhs, which is better than ota hd. noone contests that ota hd is better than sddvd. so the hd discs are by definition better than sddvd. that was my point, really dealing more with the potential of prerecorded movies in general.

there are so many advances, and one that is overlooked is that dvhs and new hd discs are recorded in widescreen. not anamorphic widescreen.

[Ratman]

C'mon... this was a good thread. Please don't deviate from the OP's opening thread.

I'd really hate to be "the bad guy" again.

Please... carefully read post #1 and reply with speculation.
Refer to post #6.

[rudyusmc1980]

*not a niche at all. dvhs failed for many of the same reasons that beta failed. lack of manufacturers. Mitsu has decks, but JVC would not license the d-theater encryption to them, so they were only good for non-mainstream movies and recording.

*we are ready. we are willing. are they able to deliver on the promises? the success of HDTV is guaranteed by our government. the success of HD players is guaranteed by financial investment and the wide range of manufacturers involved. (on that note, Toshiba might fail for exactly the lack of a wide manufacturing base)

*We have to define mainstream. Some people don't even own dvd players yet. Some people have 7 of them. I would define success as half of all HDTV owners owning one. (a figure I just arbitrarily assigned as I typed this) The goal will be constantly growing, many tvs are sold per month, and manufactured much faster than the players can be.

*We will buy it if we are educated on the advantages. I would argue that the differences are Not minor, but if Mr. Maggoo is evaluating the PQ, there is a problem.

*There will be an exponential increase in sound quality with the right equipment (HDMI rcvr) or when they get the full TrueHD chips in players. unfortunately, most HTIBs that have been crammed down the throats of unwitting consumers can't live up to the signal from trueHD.

Toshiba already has a pretty good increase in sound quality with the way they are handling DD+ and making it into DTS so everyones rcvr can handle it.

*I believe it is a jump in quality, it's just that in order to sell Tvs, the internal scalers have improved tremendously, and it gets harder to see, but it is there. I can point out noise and macroblocking and edge enhancement. Read the threads from toshiba owners, they are constantly pointing out details that are lost in sddvd. dvd encoding has improved as well though. sony shot themselves in the foot with superbit titles. I just watched Aeon Flux (it's not even superbit), it is an awesome transfer. add in good scalers and it's on like donky kong.

[gparris]

The question if HD DVD and BD will take off and I think it will, but only if the consumer is knowledgeable about the advantages AND can find the product readily available.
When DVD originally came out the product was basically a single format (Divx wasn't much to begin with to be confusing).
Since this was the time before MP3 players, CDs were the thing, so once the consumer realized the DVD players could do both DVD and CD, an advantage was found.
With easy chapter access, no tapes to break, double the picture resolution and the addition of better sound (with Dolby Digital AVRs), DVD became a hit.
Every retailer, by the early 1990's wanted their share and DVD disc titles soared.
If the high def DVDs start out this way, what with all the HDTVs to display them, it will make it.
I still think a unified format would help it grow faster, however, along with less expensive high def players and retailiers should try include them with HDTV sales as a marketing programme.
Oftentimes, at least in my experience, HDTV buyers don't actually "feed" their HDTVs a decent signal (HD) and high def DVDs could be the "ticket" to showing them what HDTV is all about (finally!) :D

[HD Sparklez]

I think it's a good time to add price to this discussion.

D-Theater didn't have as much consumer support as the decks were $700-plus each - and the films were $40-plus. Hell, even the blank tapes were $25 each.

I bought every single player version that came out, right up to my current HDMI version.

But not as many folks could get enthused about D-Theater, since there was the linear-tape stigma - a lot of people incorrectly believed that it was just some VHS format that could really offer much in the way of top quality HD - and the education process was tough.

HD DVD at $500 (and later at $300 to $400) will attract many many more buyers and supporters. Pricing HD DVD low was the best thing that Toshiba did, shortening the adoption phase by a year or two, IMO.

At the other end of the spectrum, they satisfied the videophile PQ junkies, by excelling in a big way. Thereby generating goodwill and high levels of recommendations.

The pincer action is when these buyers question the difference in cost between BD and HD and are told that the quality on HD DVD is better - they will be happy to buy the cheaper product then.

SACD and DVD-A are not really as applicable to this battle as some think (IMO). Most people (the vast majority) did not have the experience or ability to really appreciate the difference in SQ, and the market was moving downwards towards convenience, not quality.

Video is different - 25% of the consumers can take advantage of HD right now on their equipmnt - moving towards 50% very fast. The PQ diference is also readily discernible to almost anyone.

Whereas many folks listen to pop music and hard rock, which - let's face it - don't benefit very much from 96/24 multichannel playback, HD TV benefits any movie of any genre (except perhaps WWII documentaries :) ) and adds to the experience for every type of viewer.

Furthermore, although there is a lot of hype about portable video formats and players, there will be no huge changes here as happened with Audio (ie the iPod). Video is still typically for the home or the theater. Video on airplanes is for convenience, and crappy PQ is accepted here, but at home, folks are beefing up their systems.

So again, the price issue becomes very important, and to some extent, is overriding.

[Matt27]

Very good points!

One question you have to think about is the many people that just want to watch the movie and don't care about PQ or SQ, to them DVD is fine how will you entice them into the HD markets??

If these formats are ever going to take off, they need more mass awareness, i look in the sunday fliers all the time hardly see these players on the pages, and i don't see any commercials either to let people know it's out there.

I think Mass Awareness of the products is a huge issue IMO, they need to make a huge effort to get people to know that there is a better alternative out there to DVD or in this instance a successor to DVD.

They need a huge Advertizing campaign, but then again theres a format war brewing so that may be screwing things up a bit.

Discuss.... :thankyou3

[max]

I think the advertising is doing good as of now... For BluRay, they have had full page ads in both Futureshop and Bestbuy flyers since the Samsung released. And everytime you see a commercial for a movie from Sony they always mention BluRay in it. And I am sure when the PS3 comes out there will be plenty of ads for BluRay.

Toshiba had about 6 million commercials during the World Cup talking about there stand alone HD DVD players and there new HD DVD Notbook. Considering an estimated 2 billion people worldwide watched the Fifa final game, I think they are getting the word out. Also they did the HD DVD tour before launch and have had ads in the big box flyers.

Also to those planning on completely waiting out the war, plan on waiting for a couple of years... Both sides have too much invested to just give up.

MAX,

[Matt27]

I'd like to approach another good point...Ease of use and connectivity.

As of right now the HDMI business is a mess with all the encryption and copy protection.Why not just use component as an option too and KEEP component a viable option as well and forget about flagging it when the time comes.

I know a bunch of friends that have older HDTV's with just component and don't plan to upgrade anytime soon.

I think HDMI has too many issues right now with it behind the Technology, they need to make it up to the public and be as simple as possible with these technologies to watch a movie.It should be a simple as plug and play.

Discuss... :thankyou3

[Ratman]

No need to worry at this point. Component will be fine for a few years (supposedly) as they do not intend to implement the DCT yet. So... this should only be a problem for (mostly) folks with older HDTV sets. Most all sets now have HDMI/DVI.

[Matt27]

Killer Apps.

another point i would like to discuss..

right now i don't see any, but is this as important as the hardware itself when trying to get people to dive into the format?

[LeeS]

Matt27,

I agree. I stopped buying HD-DVD until they release some heavy hitters. LOTR for one, or should I say three. Batman Begins, King Kong etc.

Of the seven I have purchased so far I have all of them on SD too. I'm not going down this road again (VHS > LD > DVD > HD DVD/BD)

I have to admit, I will buy Star Wars again :).

[Matt27]

LeeS,

Star Wars would be a definate buy, as well as Indiana Jones or the James Bond collection. But, like I said, in another thread, I'm not going to dive into this format until there is a definate winner, more variety of players, better prices of software, more titles, etc.

For now I'm fine with legacy DVD until things settle down. :rockon:

[Matt27]

Bump..

anyone else care to elaborate more on the topic, im running out of thoughts.lol

[badchad]

The progression will happen, however I think it's going to be much slower than anticipated.

I say this because you have to consider the "average" consumer. When DVD's arrived, there was a noticebale increase in PQ; even to the "average" user. Thus, there was a significant demand. I don't think the same is true for HD-DVD. I don't think the "general public" will see the need to upgrade, when they can't see a significant increase in PQ.

Take for example, my mother. She has a 27 inch TV in her living room. Even if she had an HDTV she wouldn't be able to tell the difference in PQ between regular and HD-DVD. She'll only upgrade when DVD's are completely obsolete. I think this scenario holds true for a large majority of the public.

[jmdajr]

I think the increase in picture quality is huge.

You just have the right tv to notice.
And you are right, most won't.

BUt hey, I'm happy :rockon:

[gparris]

My problem or solution becomes obvious when a client buys an HDTV set, usually a microdisplay device (DLP, LCD or LCoS) or flat panel (PDP or LCD) and wonders what to do to make it look as good as what they saw in the store they purchased it at.
They sometimes appear disinterested in a HD source to input into the set, thinking that once they buy the HD set, they'll get HD automatically, even if the salesperson in the store does not misinform them (like they sometimes do).
All they need to do in our location is swapout their cable box for an HD box at no charge and go to a digital access setup to get about 9 HD channels (5 locals for sure) in the TWC subscriber area...more for the Comcast area since I am very close to Chicagoland.
In the case of HD discs, I sometimes take my PS3 along for the setup (only in difficult cases) put in a favourite BD disc of mine that will "pop"on the screen and audio setup and with the HDMI connection (and possible audio from it, depending on AVR selected): this works, too. :D
Once the HD picture from the BD disc hits their screens - 42 inch or better in diagonal from 6 feet or better standing/sitting distance, its "give me more" time from the client - honestly.
Once they can actually see HDTV at its very best, they want more, including that change of STB, at least in my experiences.

[Knicks4973]

I'm at a point in my life that I'm going to wait until DVD's are obsolete before I start buying HD-DVD's or Blu-ray DVD's. Yes the picture and sound quality is better, but for me, I'm happy with regular DVD's, as I play them through my Xbox 360. I can go and buy DVD's for like $12.00 in some places, while high definition DVD's wil cost over $20.00 a pop. I might watch a DVD a few times, and unless I'm watching a DVD everyday, regular DVD's are fine for me. Until the switch to all digital broadcasting in 2009, I think most people will opt for regualr DVD's until they are forced to upgrade. Only then will the war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray really take center stage, as more people will have HDTV's at that point.

[gparris]

High definition DVDs are a choice - but at least there IS a choice for those whose setups, many of which are now have 1080p displays, can get the maximum picture and sound out of it.
Everyone I show a HD-DVD or BD movie to with my setups or when I take them (or they take me) shopping, can see/hear the difference...kind of like an eye & ear test at the doctor.
High definition discs are often used as a standard for comparing HDTVs and audio setups, too, since the disc can be played with consistancy unlike perhaps, an OTA signal or other unrecorded programme, too. Even HD DVR recordings are limiting at times with lower bitrates and so on, so the HD discs can level the testing and observation field, so to speak, IMO.

DVDs are a great medium and many good-authoured DVDs find a place in many HT setups and if the HDTV display can work well with them, it can be very enjoyable.
Personally, if a HD disc rental title can be found you like and you can find a bargain HD-DVD player or BD player from a source you trust, waiting for the "end" of DVDs or a format war solution may not be in one's best interest, anymore...your choice.

DVDs aren't going away anytime soon, these are just going to change into something like the Universal Pictures discs out there, those "combo" discs, only made cheaper over time.
Maybe DVDs will be like those "total HD" Warner is coming out with, one disc-fits-all and if your player supports BD, HD-DVD or SD DVD, it will play just that.
Marketing has to come up with a solution whereby the discs are the same price and that has not happened yet, but the high def disc is still young.
I can find cheaper high def discs at amazon and other vendors than before, though not the same as DVDs...yet...give it time.