The digital transition, still stalled in US, accellerates in Europe

[robmx]

Sales of digital TV receivers in the UK are at 300,000 per month and expected to accelerate in the second half for a 4 to 5 million total for the year. New models are being introduced every week.

5 million receiver sales in the UK would translate to 30 million in the US since the UK is 1/6 times our size. The price of receivers has dropped to $98 on the street and a new model was just introduced for $98 list. By the fall the street price is expected to hit $82. These are not open box or Ebay prices which you hear about with 8-VSB when low prices are mentioned.

What are US sales of 8-VSB receivers? Maybe 25,000? At the present rate it will be the year 10,456 before we make our transition to digital.

Also when reading boards in the UK and Germany I have noticed little talk about antennas and rotor problems even though the power levels in Europe are a hundredth of what we have in the US.
UK (http://forum.digitalspy.co.uk/board/f/13/b25166725cdb924cdf2df5e36ad36c7fds.html)
Berlin (http://forum.digitalfernsehen.de/forum/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi)

When you see COFDM criticized in the US one thing is always the suppossed power difference. COFDM is suppossed to require twice the power of 8-VSB. NOT SO! At least in the real world. When they talk of antennas in Germany it is what to use on a car not a 50 foot tower in the back yard with guy wires, a rotor and maybe a fire lookout post on top.

The Netherlands went digital with COFDM recently with a mobile SFN. Receivers are in high demand. Same old story. You can't get a receiver because of high demand.

Who needs demand when you have an all wise FCC that can MANDATE! For the unknowing a mandate is what a government does when it is totalitarian. It knows best and forces its citizens to buy what it wants them to. What it wants then to buy is what its cronies are selling. There is no concern for the governed. There is no thought given to what is the best technology.

In this case one of the cronies is Zenith which stands to make around $6 in Intelllectual Property royalties from each 8-VSB mandated into the TV you buy.

A similar IP cost for those millions of COFDM receivers being sold all over the rest of the world is $.60 cents.

Corruption quotient? $5.40.

I will not buy one and no one should. Of course since most of America is not buying 8-VSB receivers the FCC feels it must force you to so that it can honor its commitments to its friends and you are not included in that list.

If you have any doubts on this watch what the FCC does on Tuesday next week.

[mhdiab]

robmx - you cannot compare sales of antennas in Europe to sales of antennas in the US. The market conditions are completely different with a much higher percentage using antennas compared to cable wheras in the US a much higher percentage of people get their picture through cable vs antennas. - this is a completely flawed comparison and before you comment back you should know that I am from Sweden and grew up with rabbit ears on the roof and I am very aware of the conditions so don't pull some numbers out of the hat please. England might have some higher number of cable subscribers, but either way the market is very different and the comparison doesn't work.

You can compare the sales of TV-sets which is a more true number. You should also know that one thing that has hindered the convertion of Digital in Europe is the cost of the STB. A lot of people are pissed that they are forced to spend this kind of money on something that most people got for free using rabbit ears. If you look at Sweden for example (which has one of the most built up infrastructures forcell-phone technologies and television) Digital was supposed to have been the leading way of getting tv over 2 years ago - it hasn't reached that level and is far off.

[kevinw]

Sales of digital TV receivers in the UK are at 300,000 per month and expected to accelerate in the second half for a 4 to 5 million total for the year. New models are being introduced every week.
HUH.. When does everyone finally have a tuner.? At this rate every human, dog and cow will have a tuner... The United Kingdom has a population of 58 million people complete saturation in 10 years. MHDIAB please keep Robmx in line.

Elvis alive and Who did kill Kennedy? Find out next week on Conspiracy Theory hosted by Robmx

[robmx]

Originally posted by mhdiab
robmx - you cannot compare sales of antennas in Europe to sales of antennas in the US.

I could if we were selling COFDM receivers in the US. We are not. I am suggesting that if we were we would have good results here as well.

Germany has an even higher rate of cable customers than the US at something like 95%. The first area in Germany to go digital is Berlin. They are having great success there as well.

Can I compare Berlin to the US? Or do you suggest that you can never compare anything as long as there are differences?

My position is that if a similar offering was made in the US that we would be more successful at it than either the UK or Berlin.

It can go both ways if we are different, we could be either more or less successful than what we are compared to not just less.

We certainly cannot be less successful than 8-VSB.

[kevinw]

You could compare Germany to New York State and Europe to the US. Compare apples to apples NOT oranges.

[mhdiab]

My point wasn't really that you can't compare the us to europe etc - it is hard to do, but can be done. There have been several attempts to take over the full Cable and internet market in Europe - they have failed. The market is to differntiated between different countries and region. My point was that you cannot compare the sales of receivers / antennas based on completely different market conditions. It is like comparing ice cream sale on the north pole vs. ice cream sale in Florida and drawing the conclusion that people on the north pole doesn't like ice cream as much as people in florida - the truth is that they probably like it as much, but the heat in Florida makes it more likely for people to buy ice cream. So you could compare it if you come up with a mathematical factor adjusting for the temperature and then through a factor you figure out how much to multiply the sales with and then you can compare it - you see my point?

It is exactly the same when you compare antennas / receivers therefor you need to compare the sales of TV's - since that is something that we all need to have in our home.

Also - do they have digital in Europe or HD? This is something that despite being from Europe I have yet to figure out so if you do have the information that would be appreciated.

[robmx]

Originally posted by mhdiab
It is like comparing ice cream sale on the north pole vs. ice cream sale in Florida and drawing the conclusion that people on the north pole doesn't like ice cream as much as people in florida - the truth is that they probably like it as much, but the heat in Florida makes it more likely for people to buy ice cream.

Your point is that it is hard to make simplistic comparisons between different climates or countries because they are different. Understood.

Ice Cream is a simplistic comparison if you don't do some homework. Ice Cream is mostly fat and what do you consume in artic regions to maintain body temperature? Fat. So if you have a substitute for blubber like ice cream what do you eat more of? Alaska is not the North Pole but it is close. Finland has similar taste and they go well above the Artic Circle.

Alaska (http://www.alaskajournal.com/stories/111102/pro_20021111011.shtml)

We can twist this once more. Do research on where do you find bland foods and where do you find spicy foods. Intuition would say you find spicy foods (hot) in the artic and bland foods on the equator. Not so again. The closer to the equator the hotter the foods. Why? Food preservation.

Things are different and we have to consider them. I do. Europe and the US and most advanced countries are getting closer to each other in TV, clothing, entertainment and auto markets.

TV is pretty close. My only argument is that if you give the US TV viewer the same options for free 30 channels of over the air TV as is being offered in Europe that can be received anywhere with a cellular phone like antenna on their PDAs, laptops, in their cars, on their boats, in their back yards, at the beach, on the bus, in the limosine, in the elevator and on that analog TV in the kids room with a receiver that cost $65.00 that they will buy these receivers like crazy and that we will far exceed the very successful ventures that are happening in Europe.

You have to admit that one of only three outcomes can happen. We would not be as successfull, equal to or more.

One thing I am adamant on, we could not do as bad as the current 8-VSB fiasco in the US.

[DAVID]

Hi Robmx, I am told you can help me re situation in UK re possibility of Sat reception of HD programs.

Any chance?!

I intend getting HD Plasma for display with either a new DVHS deck or Blu-laser (Sony?) when available / when films start coming through in that format in US (turn of year?)

LCOS is looking interesting too

Hope to attend big UK Trade show next week (CEDIA EXPO)

Any info you guys want re UK market - just ask

rgds

David

[mhdiab]

David - nothing against you, but it is funny that a consumer in the UK that does actually care about HD doesn't know how to receive a signal. Per information provided here the lines for the HD receiver has been as long as the lines for bread used to be in the old Sovietunion. In Germany there will soon be no more cable customers because of all the OTA HD that is being given out without any costs to the consumer.....funny that you haven't seen any of the hunger strikes that I am sure must be happening to get a 8-VSB receivers.................

My understanding was that everybody in Europe knew about this - do you mean that isn't true??????

That is just shocking - don't you think so Rob.......

Moderator - just a little humor here - if you don't think it belongs feel free to remove my post

[Ratman]

Originally posted by mhdiab
David - nothing against you, but it is funny that a consumer in the UK that does actually care about HD doesn't know how to receive a signal. Per information provided here the lines for the HD receiver has been as long as the lines for bread used to be in the old Sovietunion. In Germany there will soon be no more cable customers because of all the OTA HD that is being given out without any costs to the consumer.....funny that you haven't seen any of the hunger strikes that I am sure must be happening to get a 8-VSB receivers.................

My understanding was that everybody in Europe knew about this - do you mean that isn't true??????

That is just shocking - don't you think so Rob.......

Moderator - just a little humor here - if you don't think it belongs feel free to remove my post

Ouch!

In defense of our friend in the U.K....
Take it easy on the sarcasm. He's new here and we don't want to prematurely offend or scare him off!

And... in defense of Robmx. He promotes 'digital' transmission schemes using CODFM, not specifically HD. But, based on his reading and such, could probably address what may or may not be available in Europe in regard to HD programming.

[mhdiab]

David - nothing against you

Ratman - David - the sarcasm was fully a comment to Rob who I am sure can laugh about it - right (especially since you are convinced that the technology you promote will win in the end, which means that you would have the last laugh).

I am also aware that Rob is promoting this as a digital format and not HD, but to me it is ironic that the US apparently is so behind in this area and yet we are the ones watching HD.....I am from Europe don't get me wrong - I like a lot of stuff over there. However, I am from Sweden, which is one of the most developed countries within digital technologies and I know that the digital broadcasts back home have been extremely slow to take off - people are very sceptical and the costs have been high. Therefore I am very critical to some of the information that Rob presents (not saying you are wrong).

My favorite quote is by Mark Twain and it goes like this: Lies, damn lies and statistic ....your stats might be right, but that is the way I will still look at them. Also, if 8-VSB is so much better why all the posts about it - market factors would ensure that the best technology at the best price wins out anyways - you know adam smith - invisible hand....market will adjust :)

Edit: I guess the other part that I wanted to convey is that I don't think this place should be a propaganda place for anybody's opinions. It is one thing to post something new and discuss it and another to start new trends all the time with pretty much the same information just to get a point across. Every other subject is being discussed and then comes back to live / someone unaware of the subject posts a new one. In Rob's case there are multiple threads being started promoting a technology that he belives in - but they really all state pretty much the same thing..

[robmx]

Originally posted by mhdiab
Ratman - David - the sarcasm was fully a comment to Rob who I am sure can laugh about it - right (especially since you are convinced that the technology you promote will win in the end, which means that you would have the last laugh).

Also, if 8-VSB is so much better why all the posts about it - market factors would ensure that the best technology at the best price wins out anyways - you know adam smith - invisible hand....market will adjust :)

Every other subject is being discussed and then comes back to live / someone unaware of the subject posts a new one. In Rob's case there are multiple threads being started promoting a technology that he belives in - but they really all state pretty much the same thing..

Better technology should win out in the end if the system it lives in is not corrupt. The watch as a navigation tool did not win out for 40 years because of a corrupt British bureaucracy. It could have gone on for 500 years if something does not break the pattern.

8-VSB does not stand a chance long term because we can see clearly what the rest of the world is doing. They can't hide the disaster forever. Time has a way of disolving idiocy. And this is saying nothing about the resolution of 1080i or 720P (HDTV) which has absolutely nothing to do with modulation.

And third I find it hard to promote a technology that I don't believe in so I chose to promote one I do. I don't mean to bore but to chonologize what is happening and keep pointing a finger at the insanity that is our current digital transition.

If I am boring then it isn't working. Next week we will be showing off our stuff to the House staffers (read policy makers) in Washington. We may stir up a hornets nest.

[Ratman]

Originally posted by robmx
8-VSB does not stand a chance long term because we can see clearly what the rest of the world is doing. They can't hide the disaster forever. Time has a way of disolving idiocy.

This may happen in the U.S. when we fully convert to the metric system! :rolleyes:

IMO... idiocy will prevail.