robmx
08-30-2003, 03:37 PM
Originally posted by rogo on AVSFORUM:
I see the 698-806 MHz band being bought up almost entirely by the 6 Pack of Wireless Guys (Verizon, AT&T, Cingular, SprintPCS, T-Mobile, Nextel). They will use it for voice and moderately high-speed data, which will be used for mobile types and not really home users (who will find DSL and cable better and cheaper).
Mark
GEAR replies:
As you say not "entirely" since in the first two auctions of spectrum in the 698-806, Auctions #44 and #49, the "6 Pack of Wireless Guys" you mention didn't show up at all. They didn't spend a penny. Your statement is the conventional wisdom that has been and will be proved wrong.
And the total take from these two auctions by the US Treasury was around $97 million cash after you subtract 35% discounts and funny money. That was for THREE 6 MHz pieces of spectrum that cover the entire UNITED STATES. They were expecting BILLIONS from the "6 Pack".
The only interesting purchase was Qualcomm which won 5/6th of the US on channel #55 for $38 million of funny money but no cash (FCC credit won in legal action).
Other than that you had speculators, small phone companies protecting their own territory (Red River Rural for example) and of course broadcasters (Lin, Viacel).
Now the speculators are thinking two way Internet access mobile. It may take a while and many dollars before they thow in the towel but they will. They will not be able to compete with the price point and constantly improving business models that 802.11 has set.
Depending on the dolllars they waste trying they will be compared to an Iridium or Ricochet. This spectrum will end up in the hands of broadcasters using new innovative business plans, compression technologies and modulations.
Current broadcasters being stuck with already outdated modulation and compression schemes will have to rely on the handouts from Congress and must carry on Cable or satellite. OTA is dead for them and they know it. Anything they spend on OTA is the price of admission so that they can continue to play in the must carry game. They obviously have to deny this but off the record with friends will quickly admit it.
I see the 698-806 MHz band being bought up almost entirely by the 6 Pack of Wireless Guys (Verizon, AT&T, Cingular, SprintPCS, T-Mobile, Nextel). They will use it for voice and moderately high-speed data, which will be used for mobile types and not really home users (who will find DSL and cable better and cheaper).
Mark
GEAR replies:
As you say not "entirely" since in the first two auctions of spectrum in the 698-806, Auctions #44 and #49, the "6 Pack of Wireless Guys" you mention didn't show up at all. They didn't spend a penny. Your statement is the conventional wisdom that has been and will be proved wrong.
And the total take from these two auctions by the US Treasury was around $97 million cash after you subtract 35% discounts and funny money. That was for THREE 6 MHz pieces of spectrum that cover the entire UNITED STATES. They were expecting BILLIONS from the "6 Pack".
The only interesting purchase was Qualcomm which won 5/6th of the US on channel #55 for $38 million of funny money but no cash (FCC credit won in legal action).
Other than that you had speculators, small phone companies protecting their own territory (Red River Rural for example) and of course broadcasters (Lin, Viacel).
Now the speculators are thinking two way Internet access mobile. It may take a while and many dollars before they thow in the towel but they will. They will not be able to compete with the price point and constantly improving business models that 802.11 has set.
Depending on the dolllars they waste trying they will be compared to an Iridium or Ricochet. This spectrum will end up in the hands of broadcasters using new innovative business plans, compression technologies and modulations.
Current broadcasters being stuck with already outdated modulation and compression schemes will have to rely on the handouts from Congress and must carry on Cable or satellite. OTA is dead for them and they know it. Anything they spend on OTA is the price of admission so that they can continue to play in the must carry game. They obviously have to deny this but off the record with friends will quickly admit it.
