DVI HDCP - are these the facts?

[tconte]

From what I've been able to read from various boards, these are the facts on DVI HDCP. Am I right?

o DVI HDCP will be in the fall 2002 lineup of HDTV sets

o Any non-HDCP set will not be able to interface with any STB or HD DVD.

o There is no workaround, there can't be. HDCP must be incorporated in the set for the copy protection philosophy to work.

o Most sellers of HDTVs don't realize this is happening or do realize but want to push the old sets out the door.

o If you (as I do) own an HDTV monitor, you're screwed as you will never be able to get higher than 480p into the set. 1080i will require DVI with HDCP. Even OTA broadcasts of 1080i won't get into your set, sorry.

Does that about sum it up?

I bought a KP-57HW40 less than a week ago and now it seems it will have to go back. Ouch.

Thanks

Tom

[57U]

Originally posted by tconte
1. DVI HDCP will be in the fall 2002 lineup of HDTV sets

2. Any non-HDCP set will not be able to interface with any STB or HD DVD.

3. There is no workaround, there can't be. HDCP must be incorporated in the set for the copy protection philosophy to work.

4. Most sellers of HDTVs don't realize this is happening or do realize but want to push the old sets out the door.

5. If you (as I do) own an HDTV monitor, you're screwed as you will never be able to get higher than 480p into the set. 1080i will require DVI with HDCP. Even OTA broadcasts of 1080i won't get into your set, sorry.
1. No, there are still some new models coming out without DVI (although they may have firewire ports).

2. No, there are a lot of existing STBs etc that use component video and there will likely be for some time.

3. No, although legistation, if introduced and if adopted goes through, it may be illegal to do a "workaround", there are almost 3 million people out there with HDTV and they could be "grandfathered" or they could be a large market for a "black market" workaround box.

4. They always want to push sets out the door, I don't think that this year is any different than any model year switch, although marketing may want you to believe it is.

5. See 3. Also, 480P, upconverted on a good HDTV looks almost indistinguishable from 1080i. Also, we're not sure yet what programming will be affected (OTA, HDDVD, D-VHS, Cable HD, Satellite HD, etc.) You already know how good a progressive scan DVD looks on your HDTV, so this is the "worst" they can do...

[petarjure]

I didn't spend $3000 to watch progressive scan dvd quality. If there' s no grandfathering then they can all kiss my behind.

[tconte]

57U,

So the systems I will have trouble with likely are:

1) DirecTV STBs for premium channels

2) Likely digital cable for the same

3) HD DVD when it comes out

and in each case I'll get downconverted to (likely) 480p. The "psycho-optical" difference between 480p and 1080i on my KP-57HW40 isn't a lot. (Something like the difference between a JPEG high quality photo and a RAW 8bit RGB photo, say.)

And then there's still OTA at 1080i.

So what the heck does it matter, right?

All this assumes that my digital cable STB isn't 'recalled' by TimeWarner Cable and they give me one with a DVI HDCP connector + dumbed down composite on the back. Same could happen for DirecTV STBs as well, right?

Thanks,
Tom

[57U]

None of this is cast in stone, therefore our discussions are purely conjecture.

[phenom]

Originally posted by 57U
None of this is cast in stone, therefore our discussions are purely conjecture.

Maybe so, but if DVI/HDCP become a digital copy protection standard, wouldn't you agree that many, if not all, of his statements are true?

I had a 51HW40 for two weeks and sent it back because of the possibility of DVI/HDCP.

[tconte]

Originally posted by phenom


Maybe so, but if DVI/HDCP become a digital copy protection standard, wouldn't you agree that many, if not all, of his statements are true?

I had a 51HW40 for two weeks and sent it back because of the possibility of DVI/HDCP.

phenom,

I agree with you, but it comes down to money.

The $900-1000 I saved on the end-of-life sale of the KP57HW40, and the likely lack of discount for several months for its DVI/HDCP-capable replacement, suggest I should keep the set.

If I were to get burned here, I imagine I could sell the set for 50% of what I paid in 12 to 18 months and recoup about what I would lose by returning it now and waiting.

Like many I had thought HDTV standards had finally settled down enough to jump in. Not quite, it's under damped and still ringing a little.

Tom

[petarjure]

[ The "psycho-optical" difference between 480p and 1080i on my KP-57HW40 isn't a lot. (Something like the difference between a JPEG high quality photo and a RAW 8bit RGB photo, say.) ]


Then the mpaa has no real gripe with today's televisions if there's no real difference in quality to the human eye. The difference between 480p and 1080i is as great as the difference between vhs and dvd. The CEA is robbing today's and yesterdays customers selling these sets as hdtv ready if they know they won't be.

[JoeInBH]

Tom - I don't know if you were implying that DVI/HDCP would begin to creep up as a problem within 12-18 months, but I think any problems, IF they arise, will be much further out than that. What market will exist in 12-18 months for PPV or premium channels that are HDCP encoded? Very little. Will HD-DVD be out in a year? Not likely, or at least not at reasonable prices. If it is, what market would exist for HDCP encoded DVD's? Again, very little. I think it will be at least 5 (probably closer to 10) years out before we start to see HDCP encoding appearing in an annoyingly significant amount of programming. Without Congress or your state legislature stepping in to grandfather you, the rate of growth of the HD market probably will naturally grandfather you to the end of the useful life of your HDTV anyway.

All this assumes that DVI will become an adopted standard (I'd say a 40% chance) AND that workarounds will be unavailable (I'd say a 10% chance). I see about a 5% chance that DVI/HDCP will create unresolvable downgrading of your HD signal 5-10 years out. Is there a risk involved? Sure. Due to the irrational fear surrounding DVI/HDCP, however, there are some excellent bargains to be had out there, especially on the Sony KP series. The only reason to wait until DVI sets hit the stores is to get an even better deal on a non-DVI set.

Joe

[tconte]

Originally posted by JoeInBH
...I see about a 5% chance that DVI/HDCP will create unresolvable downgrading of your HD signal 5-10 years out. Is there a risk involved? Sure. Due to the irrational fear surrounding DVI/HDCP, however, there are some excellent bargains to be had out there, especially on the Sony KP series. The only reason to wait until DVI sets hit the stores is to get an even better deal on a non-DVI set.


Joe,

Good post, thanks. I guess I'll keep the KP57HW40.

But I'll warn lurkers: I advised my parents to buy betamax because it was superior technology. Oh and then I bought the stock options in my startup company on September 10th (yup, that's 9/10). I had until the 15th, but I wanted to make sure I got it to the CFO in time. So maybe listening to my instincts isn't too too smart :-)

Tom

[phenom]

part of why I returned my 51HW40 was that I wanted a TV that would last 10 years. I bought my last TV ten years ago, and even if DVI becomes the standard in 5 years, that's still too soon for me to keep a non-DVI television. I waited 10 years for a new TV, I can wait a couple months longer. I'm willing to bet on DVI/HDCP within 10 years as opposed to another copy protection, so I'm not worried about it not becoming a standard. I just want a TV for 10 years, and I feel the DVI/HDCP compatible set would be more likely to provide that.

[kevinw]

Just an added thought- Hd broadcasting is not mandatory but digital is. Even though Fox will display some programming in 480p they do not do 1080i( or 720p like ABC's HD).
This year was the first time that DVD players outsold VHS. How long do you think it will take before people completely switch to a Digital TV and a HD DVD player? My guess at least 10 years if not more.
All this DVI crap is to prevent recording and pirating HD Vhs movies and DVD's. WOW buy the time they come out with a HD DVD players in the 250 range and the DVD's to go with it will be 10 years.

I personally do not see that much of a difference between a DVD now and the broadcast of the same movie in HD. At least not enough to justify waiting or paying the premium just in case.

Prices will come down-4 years ago my Stb(Pioneer SH-D505) listed for $2500.00. The only people that bought them were the ultra rich who had to have a Plasma screen and an HD tuner for the 1 station they mave have been able to receive. I paid 250 used and I am able to get 7 digital stations. What a difference time makes.
If money is an issue, do not worry about buying a non-DVI set. You will get plenty of use for many years in OTA HD and DVD use. But if money is NO issue buy the cutting edge so you can hookup that HD vcr(900.00) that will be replaced by the HDDVD recorder(????). ;)